What knives will be selling 5 years from now?

BossDog

BossDog

KnifeDogs.com & USAknifemaker.com Owner
Staff member
If you want to get noticed for making great knives. Start making them 5 years early....

What will be 'hot' 5 years from now?

If we have exited Iraq and Afghanistan will military style fixed blades still be big?

Will large tactical folders still be selling well?

Will classic design slip joints rule?

Will we see tactical or classic styling drive sales?

or will everything be pretty much like it is now?
 
Those are some good questions?

Some will have to do with what the economy is doing?
Other will have to do with what we knife makers are doing?
How much is being made? And what price it is being sold for?
I hope slip joints are still doing well? Cause that is what I will be making. :D
Just hope I can still find good quality handle material than? :confused: And still have enough brains to make them??? :D

Todd


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Tactical folders are hear to stay.

The next generation of knife collectors are in Iraq / A-stan right now. ;)
 
I have to agree with Les. Tactical knives are here to stay. The tactical knife craze really began to kick up in the mid to late 90s. Thank you Ernest Emerson! Military personnel deployed in support of OIF/OEF have done alot for promoting the tactical knife industry but lets not forget the number of law enforcement, fire fighters, and emergency response personnel who carry tactical knives as well. The fact of the matter is that as long as there is a need for those who defend and protect our communities and nation and those who respond in our time of need, there will be a need for tactical knives.

Now, our question is.....how are our more traditional models of knives going to survive the test of time? In my lifetime I have seen the tried and true slip joint evolve from the design that every "gool ole boy" in town has as an EDC to one of the most highly sought after designs by high end collectors and buyers wanting a traditional design. The same can be said of hunting and camp style blades. How many "do it yourself" type guys do you know that doesn't own at least one of each?

I think the best question here is, "How are the tried and true designs going to evolve in the future?". Will there be a new take on the liner/frame lock? What will the new knife steel of the future be?

I just hope that in five years I've finally dicovered the secret to grinding a blade and actually finished a knife as opposed to reducing really good bars of steel into odd shaped toothpicks made of steel.
 
I have to agree.. "Loveless" style knives is a dying breed. I mean c'mon people have been riding that band wagon for years now. Don't get me wrong I can appreciate old school just as much as anyone, but times are a changing :D

People want innovation and fresh concepts. Hell if I could design a flipper Light Saber I would :O
 
" The pedilum swing like the pendilum do " What is new today will be old tomorrow & vis versa. The more versital the maker the more likely he is to stay in the forefront. More importantly , do what makes you happy ! :D

Joe
 
this is all just rambling and speculation...I am entitled to be entirely wrong.

If we get out of the sand box in 5 years, I would guess that tactical fixed blades will see a decline and folders will see an increase. It just seems that if you have a few hundred thousand men (and women) that have used and understand the value of a stout fixed blade they will want a tool like that back home. I'd guess we will see an upswing of beefy folder "users".

Maybe the focus today on large tactical fixed blades will shift to large fighter style fixed blades collectables in 5 years?

I am seeing less Loveless style knives than 5 years ago. They aren't dead and won't be 5 years from now but there are less of them being made.

Hunting is declining in the USA. Scarce land and time continues to impact this sport. I would expect 'hunters' as a category to decline.

The cutlery industry needs to get more women friendly. There needs to be a reason a women carries a knife/tool in her purse. Colors/styles/marketing all has to be turned upside down. Why wouldn't women want a great kitchen knife or two? I made a kitchen knife for my wife (for me really but I told her it was for her). I asked what color handle she wanted - expecting to hear black that matched the others. She wanted bright red. Most kitchen knives have black handles. What happens when someone puts out brightly colored high quality kitchen knives?

The damascus guys will mostly hate this but I am guessing colored damascus will be more and more important. We are seeing some early adapters coming out with stuff that is really fresh and interesting. I get all the arguments against surface coloring wearing off but that isn't going to stop it. It's just going to take a couple big makers to put out some stunners that make the magazines and win a few awards to make this explode.
 
Five years from now? First off, my Doctor gave me 6 months to live. I told him I couldn't pay him so he gave me another 6 months. Now to the question. Women are a prime target market for the future, just ask the brains at Harley Davidson. When Harley sales began a decline due to the fact that us old school riders are an aging group and young riders don't care as much about the Harley mystique as they do about performance and looks, HD realized that they needed a new market and started targeting women. I think the same holds true for knives.
Tacticals, whether they be fixed or folding will never go away and IMHO will be just as big of a market segment as they are today. Go to your local shooting store and try to buy ammo for your six shooter. A lot of it is tough to find. Sure, the manufacturers are sending a lot to the middle east but tons of it are being bought up by individuals that feel that they need to be ready for the Apocalypse. Survivalist groups are on the rise. I don't think our sense of impending doom will dissipate and go away over the next five years. And I sure as hell don't see gangs leaving our society any time in the future. Everyone will want to be armed in one way or another.
I think Sambar stag and Desert Ironwood will become the new ivory and tortoise shell in terms of availability and desirability. I can't afford either one now, I can't imagine what the price will be in 5 years - if there is any available at all.
I disagree with the idea that Loveless style knives will go out of style. They are good functional designs that will be around forever. Look in your gun safe. The semi-auto pistol in there was probably made from a design created in 1911. If it's good and it works, it won't go away and shouldn't.
My generation grew up watching cowboy and indian and war movies on black and white t.v. We all wanted a lever action carbine like the Rifleman. Newer generations have grown up killing hookers with a chain saw on Grand Theft Auto. The weapons used in todays video games will be what the coming generations want in real life. That includes the sharp pointy objects they have used in their video games. What once was considered a " Fantasy art knife" might be the EDC of the future. When making knives we really have to give thought to who will be buying them and for what reasons.
Damn, I'm windy. Last but not least, if you think Irag and Afghanistan will be the last battlefieds we'll see in our lives you are just plain nuts. History repeats itself. There will always be a new war on the horizon as long as man is on this earth and those new warriors will still need knives. What we make and sell/send them will still have to have the same utility that knives have had since the beginning of time. What will change will be the steels and the handle materials.
Oops, one more thing. I don't believe that hunting will cease to exist or even decline. Illinois is being overrun with deer. Kentucky now has an elk population big enough to hunt and there is talk of opening a black bear season. Coyotes are multiplying rapidly. The animals we hunt are adapting to a different landscape but they are still out there and thriving. All a lack of hunting land does is create more hunting clubs and preserves. We'll need just as many hunters and skinners in 5 years as we do now.
Times will change and materials will change but people and their needs never will.
 
Denton Eller said:
Five years from now?
Oops, one more thing. I don't believe that hunting will cease to exist or even decline. Illinois is being overrun with deer. Kentucky now has an elk population big enough to hunt and there is talk of opening a black bear season. Coyotes are multiplying rapidly. The animals we hunt are adapting to a different landscape but they are still out there and thriving. All a lack of hunting land does is create more hunting clubs and preserves. We'll need just as many hunters and skinners in 5 years as we do now.
Times will change and materials will change but people and their needs never will.
Click to expand...


Have to agree with the above.......
Here in Kansas ( lot of dear here also ) there are game farms now. They raise pheasants & quail by the 100 thousands and turn them out to be hunted.
We also have a huge wild life preserve were duck & geese are hunted.
I know these are just small game birds but hunters carry knives. And I think they always will?

Todd


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Hunting is already on the decline and has been for years. Google "hunting decline" It will never go away but it's clearly on the downside and almost certainly will never return to what it was. We won't get into animal overpopulation programs debate, this is a knife forum and that conversation just heats people up - me included.
 
I hope the future holds strong for the traditional knives, especially in the folder market like slipjoints and lockbacks. Right now the market for them appears strong with plenty of quality makers.

While I doubt tacticals are going to go away , I hope to see tactical become more user friendly , meaning more comfortable to use. Seems to be a trend lately towards tactical = blocky and square with lots of angles and square corners. Certainly not user friendly on the hand ( this is not a slam against tacticals , just the ones I have handled have many hot spots that in use would blister the hand fast ). More on function and less on looks and foo-foo is what I am getting at.

Old becomes new again. :) Knives become comfortable to use again.

I just hope that new regime' doesn't cram ridiculous knife laws down our throats , as that could change everything for the worse.

Regardless of what is made , there will be a market for it.
 
Boss, do you think part of the decline in hunters is due to the fact that we have thousands of reservists and National Gaurdsmen along with regular military individuals deployed in the middle east? Do you think that the states who have instituted youth hunting programs will see a rise in the number of hunters?
 
I have several freinds who are deer hunters and through them several more aquaintances who hunt. In the last five years a good number of them have gone from fixed blades to carrying pocket knives such as Bucks or Shrades. " too bulky or hard to access under field gear" is the concensus. It's like I have to beg freinds to just try one out in field conditions for testing. The problem isn't looks or function. Everyone still appreciates a well made knife, but not to carry. Maybe this is just a regional thing but I doubt it. The newer generation wants fast and functional.

Rudy
 
Denton Eller said:
Boss, do you think part of the decline in hunters is due to the fact that we have thousands of reservists and National Gaurdsmen along with regular military individuals deployed in the middle east? Do you think that the states who have instituted youth hunting programs will see a rise in the number of hunters?
Click to expand...

Nope, nothing to do with that. It's just being lost to other activities. Hunting and fishing have been on the decline for 20 years and that loss is accelerating. Fishing had a brief growth spurt when Bass Tournaments went big money but that is again on the decline. It's just that people are finding other things to do. We will never see them go away but we see those activities dwindle.
 
What will be hot in 5 years? That is impossible to know. But what we do know.
Knife Styles don't make knifemakers famous. The Knifemaker will be famous because of his style of knifemaking.
Let Look at Randall, Chris Reeves, Davidison and Hibben. Chris has won Two years running, Knife of the year at blade. Last year with a tactical and this year with a Kitchen knife. Randall what can you say, Every design a man would need. Hibben make tactical, bowies and hunters. Davidison make every style knife you can imagine just it is in his style. They are not famous because the choose one design and it made them famous. They are famous because people like them and their knives.
One thing I have learned it is impossible to make your own knife design. Everything has been done. But what you can do is make a design your own.
What make a knifemaker famous is the Makers themselves. I have met a lot of famous makers One thing they have in common is their likability. That will make you famous.

I was told always make a variety of knives. Whatever is popular I will be making it.
 
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Damascus will continue to rise in popularity, and knives with hamons will increase even more. Smelting your own steel to make your knives out of will be the hot new thing showcased in two years at blade. The abs old guard, in order to continue in power, will create a new catagory title; grandmastersmith or another grandious title.

Tatical knives will continue in popularity, as has been mentioned before.
Custom folding knives will also rise in popularity, but some proven fixed blade designs will continue in popularity.
 
I am guessing with the left trying to eliminate weapons carry of any kind we might start to see designs built specifically to out smart the knife laws
 
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