Measuring temperature certainly lets you sidestep a big chunk of the learning curve, and whilst a cheapish thermocouple and readout won't be any better than a good smiths eyeball at getting repeatable temperatures, it won't be any worse either.
If you are self taught and/or still learning, a good smiths eyeball won't be available until you are pretty good. Even then it's nice to check its calibration every so often, especially if the lighting conditions change.
For the cheapest setup I can find that does the job well, I suggest the following:
Get on ebay and buy a TM902C readout for under $10. The probe that comes with it isn't much use to us, but you can stick it in your quench tank for checking the temperature. I can't be sure, but it might even be glass-fiber insulated and good to tempering temperatures, so you can check your oven. It certainly won't do forging temperatures. NOTE: The TM902C only reads in degC, to 1300 degC (2372 degF) so if you only think in degF, either sort yourself out a conversion chart or buy a different readout. Despite the price, my TM902C is accurate. It agrees with my more expensive readouts and it's the one I tend to use most, just because it's cheap and foolproof.
Then go to
www.Omega.com and get a KHXL-14G-RSC-24
The KHXL page is at
http://www.omega.com/ppt/pptsc.asp?ref=KHXL_NHXL&Nav=tema06
For some reason the 24" probe doesn't show, but put "KHXL-14G-RSC-24" in the search box and it'll give you a price. Looks to me around $60 shipped in the US, but I'm not familiar with any sales taxes, etc in the US and could be wrong.
KHXL-14G-RSC-24 breaks down as; Type K Mineral Insulated thermocouple with a "Super Omegaclad" sheath, usable up to 1335 degC (2440 degF) for short periods (this is vague, I know, but think in terms of hours or days, rather than weeks or months). 1/4" (6mm) diameter (rigid enough to be able to place the tip where you want it when it's 2 feet away from the handle) with a grounded junction (this gives fast response and means that it measures right at the tip). It's 24" long (enough that you won't burn your hand or melt the handle unless you are pretty careless) with a plastic handle, curly cable and a miniature plug to fit the TM902C (or most other typeK readouts you may come across).